Walk-Squawk Morning Wire
Rains Keep Midwest Crops on Track — Weather Bias Stays Bearish for Corn & Soy
🏭 Copper Market in Turmoil as Trump Touts 50% Tariff
Markets are reeling after President Trump threw a grenade into the copper trade — announcing plans for a 50% tariff on all US copper imports, far higher than many expected.
📈 What’s happening?
New York copper futures spiked to a record one-day gain, up 17% on Tuesday, before giving back some gains Wednesday.
The Comex contract now trades at a record premium to the global benchmark (LME), as traders scramble to front-run the tariff window.
🧐 Why does this matter?
The US does not have enough mine or refinery capacity to meet domestic demand — it imports 36% of what it needs.
A 50% tariff means US manufacturers will face higher costs, likely pushing US copper prices well above global levels.
As Jefferies’ team put it: “The US does not have nearly enough capacity to be self-sufficient in copper… this will mean significant price premiums relative to other regions.”
🔍 What’s next?
Details remain unclear — including which forms of copper are covered, possible exemptions (Chile?), and whether in-transit shipments get hit.
The Commerce Secretary suggested the levy could kick in by late July or Aug. 1, but the final rule isn’t out yet.
Watch for big events that could swing prices: new tariff clarifications, upcoming CPI data, and any stimulus updates.
📊 The Big Picture:
While the long-term goal is to boost US mining and smelting, analysts say this is not feasible on a meaningful scale in the next decade. Expect tight supply, high premiums, and plenty of market volatility until new domestic supply comes online — if it ever does.
🌽 Corn Sinks Below $4 on Tariff Shock & Good Weather
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threats aren’t just shaking metals — they’re also hitting agriculture.
Corn futures dropped below $4 a bushel for the first time since last August, as the White House announced new tariffs on major US corn buyers Japan and South Korea.
🌱 Add in good weather:
The USDA just rated 74% of the corn crop good-to-excellent, better than expected.
Midwest forecasts for the next two weeks show ideal pollination conditions — plenty of rain, no extreme heat.
📉 Why it matters:
A 25% tariff on key importers raises major demand concerns just as production looks healthy. If big buyers pull back, that leaves more corn on the US balance sheet.
⚡ Key Takeaway: Tariffs = Tumult
Between copper and corn, the market message is clear: Trump’s trade policy is sending fresh shockwaves.
For copper, brace for tighter supply, domestic premiums, and volatility — especially with record imports front-running the deadline.
For corn, robust yields plus trade friction could keep a lid on prices, at least until there’s clarity on foreign demand.
📰 One Week After the Momentum Wobble: Retail’s Record Run and How Goldman is Playing It
One week ago, the unstoppable momentum trade — the top-performing strategy of the first half of 2025 — hit its first real stumble as the third quarter kicked off. After a nearly flawless run, even surviving the “Liberation Day” correction unscathed, momentum stocks finally flinched.
Back then, we shared the full list of stocks in Goldman’s High Beta Momentum (GSPRHIMO) basket for anyone looking to mirror 2025’s winning playbook (details here). But the other big force driving markets this year? Retail traders.
Retail participation in 2025 has smashed every record, with small investors buying more and holding more than ever before. They’ve now outperformed the broader S&P in six of the past eight years — only 2021 and 2022 were the exceptions.
📈 Retail’s Favorite Stocks So Far
Nvidia (NVDA) remains retail’s top pick for the second year running. Tesla (TSLA) has reclaimed the #2 spot after leading in 2023. Palantir (PLTR) is surging in both dollar inflows (+$5.8bn) and rank, while Ford (F) re-enters the top 20, likely on tariff speculation. Notably, Direxion’s 2x Bull Tesla ETF (TSLL) has become the first single-stock leveraged ETF to break into the retail top 20, according to Vanda Research.
Across the board, retail investors have grown their share of ownership in these big names — especially Tesla, AMD, and Palantir. Carvana is one of the few exceptions.
📊 A Shift in Strategy
One key twist in 2025: retail flows have shifted from broad-based ETFs toward single-name leveraged ETFs. While broad ETFs still dominate total inflows, single-stock products are gaining fast.
Not every retail-heavy name is a forever favorite. Some names are quick trades — crypto-linked and regional bank stocks, for example, are seeing the highest turnover relative to overall volume. That may help explain why a new crypto bubble hasn’t inflated yet — but that could change quickly.
💡 Putting It All Together
Below, you’ll find a detailed matrix of where retail dollars are flowing, the top stocks, and the options that are seeing the biggest retail action so far this year.
🎯 Goldman’s Playbook: Ride the Meme Stock Wave with Less Risk
After mapping the top retail trends, let’s zoom in on a new idea from Goldman’s Flow Exo group: a way to “ride the retail wave” and meme stock volatility while managing downside risk.
Key Points from Goldman’s “Meme Stock Volatility Play”:
✅ Spot Up, Vol Up: Retail buying is fueling high-beta meme stock rallies, especially after traders bought the dip during the April tariff scare. With a stimulus bill and Fed rate cuts likely ahead, there’s more room for upside volatility.
✅ Spot Down, Vol Up: Even if prices drop, meme stocks’ high valuations and social media-driven swings make big moves likely. Implied vol levels may be underpricing this.
✅ Event Risk: Big catalysts like upcoming tariff news (July 9) and CPI data (July 15) could create sharp price moves.
✅ Attractive Entry: After the April vol spike, the setup for long volatility trades in meme stocks is especially compelling.
How the Trade Works:
Structure: A corridor dispersion variance swap accrues value when the stock stays within a certain range.
Maturity: June 18, 2026.
Exposure: USD 100k–1mm vega notional.
Corridor Bounds: 70–130% of initial spot.
Cap: 2.5x.
Basket: Carefully selected meme stocks with sector diversification.
Full Payout and Backtest:
Goldman provides a detailed backtest showing how the 12-month implied vol for the basket has evolved, plus the payout structure at maturity.
🌾 Daily Weather Recap — July 9, 2025
Good Morning, Producers & Traders —
Here’s your midweek snapshot of weather trends and what they mean for the markets:
🇺🇸 U.S. Forecast: Mild, Moist & Crop-Friendly
🔍 3- and 7-Day Outlooks:
Both the GFS and Euro models continue to show widespread rain across the central and eastern Corn Belt through July 16.
Heaviest totals remain focused on parts of IA, IL, IN, and OH — keeping soil moisture levels ample during peak pollination.
Temperatures remain mostly seasonal with no threat of prolonged extreme heat in major producing regions.
**🌽 Market Takeaway:
Conditions remain neutral-to-bearish for corn and soybeans. Good moisture and moderate temps mean yield potential stays above trend in many areas. Expect traders to watch for any drier turn as tasseling nears its peak.
🇧🇷 South America: A Quiet Pattern
📍 24-Hour Observed & Short-Term Forecast:
Light, scattered showers noted in southern Brazil; Argentina remains mostly dry.
No major anomalies — typical for this time of year as southern hemisphere crops are mostly off the field or in early planning for next cycle.
⚡️ Key Points for Today
✅ Good rain coverage across the Midwest keeps soil conditions solid.
✅ No significant heat stress showing up in extended runs.
✅ South America remains uneventful — focus stays on northern hemisphere crop development.
🔑 Bottom Line
The weather remains cooperative for big U.S. row crops — and traders know it. Without a surprise shift to heat/dryness, rallies will need a fresh catalyst beyond weather alone.
Stay tuned — we’ll keep you updated if any models flip toward a hotter or drier bias.
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