Walk-Squawk Morning Wire
U.S. Crop Ratings Strong—But Can July Weather Keep It That Way?
🚨 BREAKING NEWS ALERT 🚨
Trump Issues Urgent Warning to Israel: "DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS"
Moments ago, President Trump dramatically intervened via Truth Social, directly addressing Israel as tensions escalate in the fragile ceasefire agreement with Iran:
"ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES."
This stark message from the President highlights a critical moment for regional stability. Trump’s urgent directive signals potential concerns of imminent Israeli military action threatening the delicate ceasefire brokered earlier by the U.S. and Qatar.
Markets and policymakers worldwide are now closely watching Israel’s response, as any further aggression risks unraveling peace efforts and plunging the region back into conflict.
Stay tuned to Walk-Squawk Market Talk for continued live updates and detailed analysis as the situation unfolds.
Ceasefire Holds—For Now—After Intense Overnight Clashes
A US- and Qatar-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran officially took effect shortly after midnight ET, according to a Truth Social announcement by President Trump, who emphatically urged compliance: "THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!"
Overnight Hostilities
Despite the impending ceasefire, both nations exchanged heavy blows into the early hours:
Israeli Strikes: Targeted attacks across northern Iran left at least nine dead, including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohammad Reza Siddiqi.
Iranian Retaliation: A missile strike devastated a seven-story apartment complex in Beersheba, Israel, resulting in at least five deaths and 26 injuries. Israeli rescue services continue to search the rubble.
Official Statements and Controversy
Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office stated: "Israel has achieved all of the objectives of Operation Rising Lion, and much more."
Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed cessation of attacks contingent on Israel ceasing "its illegal aggression," denying Israeli claims of post-ceasefire missile launches.
Trump's "12-Day War" Narrative
President Trump, calling the conflict "THE 12 DAY WAR," framed the ceasefire as a strategic success. He highlighted the diplomatic role played by Qatar, praising both nations for their "Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence" to halt hostilities.
Trump posted:
“In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect ‘hit,’ late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!”
Domestic Reactions in Israel
Hawkish Skepticism: Avigdor Liberman, chairman of the Yisrael Beytenu party, criticized the ceasefire, demanding Iran’s "unconditional surrender," warning of future dangers.
Political Caution: Likud party's Dan Illouz expressed skepticism, questioning if this was merely a temporary victory. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid urged Netanyahu to seize the moment to end the conflict in Gaza, saying, “Return the hostages, end the war. Israel needs to start rebuilding.”
US Political Fallout
The ceasefire announcement disappointed neoconservative advocates of a broader war with Iran, prompting relief among non-interventionist groups wary of deeper US involvement in the Middle East.
Lingering Uncertainties
Key unanswered questions remain:
Will the ceasefire hold amid continued regional tension?
What is the status of Iran's uranium enrichment stockpile post-US strikes?
Market Reaction and Geopolitical Context
Markets initially responded positively to the ceasefire news, with futures rising and oil prices sharply retreating after record volatility. Analysts noted the ceasefire appeared orchestrated as an "off-ramp" to prevent escalation into broader conflict.
Looking Ahead
The durability of the ceasefire remains uncertain.
Continued monitoring of compliance from both sides will be crucial.
Global reactions will influence next steps, particularly from Russia, Gulf states, and the international community.
Grain Stocks Report History: What the Past Decade Tells Us (2014–2024)
The historical price action surrounding the June 1 USDA Grain Stocks reports reveals key patterns in volatility, market behavior, and trader expectations for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Here’s a breakdown of what the data shows:
🌽 Corn: Highly Reactive, No Clear Directional Bias
Average Intraday Range: 30.57¢
Average Absolute Price Move: 20.11¢
Average % Move (ABS): 4.38%
Notable Trends:
Corn reacts sharply to stocks reports. Seven of the last 11 years saw absolute price moves over 20¢.
Largest drop: –33.75¢ (–6.39%) in 2023 — a bearish surprise.
Largest rally: +30.75¢ (+8.02%) in 2015 — a bullish supply shock.
Despite volatility, there is no consistent directional pattern. Roughly half the reports resulted in gains; the other half, losses.
Traders consistently use this report as a position-recalibration day heading into acreage and weather markets.
Implication: Be prepared for outsized price movement—regardless of direction.
🌱 Soybeans: Frequently Bullish, Big Moves on Surprises
Average Intraday Range: 52.68¢
Average Absolute Price Move: 33.16¢
Average % Move (ABS): 2.89%
Notable Trends:
Soybeans show explosive upside potential when stocks are tighter than expected.
Top gainers:
+90.25¢ (+6.64%) in 2021
+77.5¢ (+6.12%) in 2023
Soybeans have posted positive reactions in 7 of the last 11 reports.
The market tends to respond more strongly when stocks data aligns with bullish crush margins or export trends.
Implication: Soybeans are a high-beta grain when surprise data hits—especially when paired with a strong demand narrative.
🌾 Wheat: Consistent Volatility, Often a Follower
Average Intraday Range: 30.98¢
Average Absolute Price Move: 20.55¢
Average % Move (ABS): 3.39%
Notable Trends:
While not as headline-driven, wheat still reacts with 3%+ swings regularly.
Largest drops:
–43.5¢ (–4.61%) in 2022
Top gains:
+34.25¢ (+5.90%) in 2015
Wheat often moves in sympathy with corn or soybeans, but still registers sharp standalone reactions to domestic and global stocks revisions.
Implication: Wheat may be overlooked but should not be underestimated—it’s volatile and sensitive to the U.S. and global supply outlook.
🔍 Key Takeaways from 11-Year History
Volatility is a Feature, Not a Fluke:
All three commodities consistently see large intraday swings and closing changes following the report.
Direction is Unpredictable:
There’s no repeatable bullish or bearish pattern. Price response depends entirely on how actual USDA data compares with pre-report expectations.
Soybeans Are the Most Explosive:
With the largest average price and percentage moves, soybeans present the most asymmetrical opportunities (and risks).
Traders Position Ahead:
The stocks report often marks inflection points where managed money repositions ahead of acreage reports and key growing season weather.
🌽 Grain Market Update:
U.S. corn and soybean cash bids were largely unchanged to start the week, while weather outlooks remain in the spotlight as the crop heads toward critical growth stages.
📊 Cash Market Snapshot:
Corn basis held firm across most locations. Notable strength persists in Eastern Corn Belt bids—Winchester, IN and Dayton, OH posted +40¢ over July.
Soybean basis was mixed, with continued weakness in western Iowa and Minnesota (e.g., Mason City, IA: -35¢) but modest strength in parts of Ohio and Indiana (Decatur, IN: +20¢).
CIF basis edged higher for July corn (+2¢ to 69N) and remained flat to firmer for August soybeans (+2¢ to 78Q).
🚛 Freight Trends:
Truck freight rates showed regional divergence: Illinois fell 12.5%, while Ohio rose 7.5%, reflecting spot market tightness ahead of early harvest and export demand shifts.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Hot, Wet, and Everything In Between
The southern Midwest remains hot, with highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s, but no extreme heat domes are forecast.
Heavy rains are expected this week from Kansas to Wisconsin, where 1.5–3.5 inches are forecast through Thursday—some localized flooding is possible.
Another round of rain is likely Friday through Sunday, helping to restore soil moisture lost to recent heat and wind.
The first week of July looks drier overall, but soil conditions should remain adequate for early pollination, assuming timely rains follow later in the month.
🧠 Analyst Takeaway:
Crop condition ratings remain solid, with corn at 70% good-to-excellent (G/E) and soybeans at 66% G/E, both just below expectations but still well above year-ago levels. The market’s attention now turns to pollination timing and whether July heat aligns with dry stretches—a scenario that could reignite volatility.
Keep your eyes on basis bids and CIF spreads as indicators of early harvest pressure and crush margins. Any weather threats could quickly shift sentiment, especially as managed money starts to rebuild long positions in soybeans.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Walk-Squawk Market Talk to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.