Walk-Squawk Morning Wire

USDA June 30 Reports: Mostly Steady, Wheat Harvest Surprises

📉 US Stock Futures Ease After S&P 500’s Strong Quarter

US equity futures are ticking lower this morning, easing back after the S&P 500 just wrapped up its strongest quarter since 2023. Investors are keeping a close watch on the progress of trade negotiations and the political back-and-forth in Washington over President Trump’s proposed tax bill.

Despite fresh budget wrangling, Treasury yields suggest no immediate stress: the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.19% as traders lean further into bets on potential Fed rate cuts. Swaps now imply at least two quarter-point cuts by year-end, with odds of a third around 65%.

Meanwhile, the dollar slipped 0.3% as the euro edges toward its longest winning streak against the greenback in more than 20 years. European stocks also drifted slightly lower, and Tesla shares dropped over 4% premarket after renewed threats from Trump to withdraw company subsidies.

With earnings season on the horizon and US trade talks racing toward a July 9 deadline, market bulls will be looking for concrete catalysts to sustain the rally. As ING’s Vincent Juvyns noted: “A glance at Treasury yields shows no particular stress — but we’ll need real earnings fuel to push this further.”

On the watchlist this week: the ECB’s annual retreat in Portugal, fresh PMI data, and key US jobs reports, which could shape the path for the Fed and the dollar as summer kicks off.

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📊 USDA June 30 Grain Reports: Mostly a Non-Event, With a Few Tweaks to Watch

The USDA’s June 30 Grain Stocks and Acreage reports landed broadly in line with market expectations, keeping major balance sheet implications limited ahead of the July 11 WASDE update.